Factors associated with multibacillary leprosy in a region of northeastern Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: The analysis of factors associated with multibacillary leprosy is important for the development of strategies to mitigate the disease, which persists as a public health problem in Brazil and the world. The objective of this study was to verify the associations between sociodemographic and clinical-epidemiological variables and multibacillary leprosy in the state of northeastern Brazil. METHODOLOGY: This is a cross-sectional, analytical, and retrospective study, with a quantitative approach, carried out in 16 municipalities in the southwest of Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil. All cases of leprosy reported between January 2008 and December 2017 were considered. Sociodemographic and clinical-epidemiological variables were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The identification of the risk factors associated with multibacillary leprosy was conducted using Poisson regression models. The prevalence ratios and respective 95% confidence intervals were estimated using regression coefficients at a 5% significance level. RESULTS: A total of 3,903 leprosy cases were analyzed. Individuals older than 15 years, males, with less than 8 years of education, with level I, II, or "not evaluated" disability, and with type 1 or 2 or both reactional states were more likely to have multibacillary leprosy. Therefore, these characteristics may be considered risk factors. No protective factors were identified. CONCLUSIONS: The investigation revealed important associations between risk factors and multibacillary leprosy. The findings can be considered during the creation of strategies to control and combat the disease.

Spatiotemporal risk assessment and COVID-19 trend estimation in a federative unit in northeastern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide, causing a high burden of morbidity and mortality, and has affected the various health service systems in the world, demanding disease monitoring and control strategies. The objective of this study was to identify risk areas using spatiotemporal models and determine the COVID-19 time trend in a federative unit of northeastern Brazil. METHODS: An ecological study using spatial analysis techniques and time series was carried out in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. All new cases of COVID-19 registered in the state from March 2020 to August 2021 were included. Incidence rates were calculated and spatially distributed by area, while the spatiotemporal risk territories were identified using scan statistics. The COVID-19 time trend was determined using Prais-Winsten regressions. RESULTS: Four spatiotemporal clusters with high relative risks for the disease were identified in seven health regions located in the southwest/northwest, north and east of Maranhão. The COVID-19 time trend was stable during the analysed period, with higher rates in the regions of Santa Inês in the first and second waves and Balsas in the second wave. CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneously distributed spatiotemporal risk areas and the stable COVID-19 time trend can assist in the management of health systems and services, facilitating the planning and implementation of actions toward the mitigation, surveillance and control of the disease.